AFRL Alternatives Planning Technology Aids Decision Makers Published Dec. 12, 2006 By Plans and Programs Directorate AFRL/XP WRIGHT-PATTERSON AIR FORCE BASE, Ohio -- Department of Defense (DoD) professionals frequently confront daunting amounts of data that, considered collectively, contribute to an informed decision but, viewed individually, mean nothing or add no value. Many times, this data represents inexplicit averages, approximations, and expert opinion. AFRL scientist and engineers have developed a technology that fuses such amassed information into a comprehensible display that facilitates effective and efficient decision making. Every DoD mission--from developing aircraft maintenance schedules to managing laboratory research and development programs--involves some type of risk. The AFRL-developed technology is a Microsoft Excel®-based tool enabling the quantitative comparison of alternatives. The new alternatives planning tool, RiskAoA, was previously known as RiskHammer; it requires no software license and is free of charge, providing decision-quality information for anyone. The RiskAoA program combines textual, quantitative, and qualitative inputs to generate (using distribution statistics and the generalized mean) an ordered comparison of the risks associated with any alternative. Whereas current risk tools fill an important gap in risk analysis by displaying the risk of a program under current conditions, RiskAoA fulfills another niche: it compares and contrasts alternatives for both future planning and instantaneous review purposes. This capability represents an enormous aid to future planning and the comparison of current program portfolios. Furthermore, risk evaluations from current tools map directly into RiskAoA for other quantitative comparisons. RiskAoA is not only a program manager's tool; it is easily adapted to quantify any alternative, comparison, or set of choices. For example, the program has the capacity to analyze choices such as those involved in comparing the risks of contract proposals, stock portfolios, or even different routes to work. The use of RiskAoA promotes preemptive management by transforming daunting amounts of accumulated data into concise, relevant information.