Simulation Model Predicts Cultural Attitudes, Responses Published June 20, 2012 By Lt Michelle L. King 711th Human Performance Wing WRIGHT-PATTERSON AIR FORCE BASE, Ohio -- A wealth of behavioral research describes normative differences between individuals from different cultures. Researchers report qualitative and quantitative differences in such areas as cognition, interpersonal processes and belief structure; several researchers have developed taxonomies of cultural differences. For example, Hofstede (2001) proposed several cultural dimensions which affect behavior, and those dimensions have been explored for their applicability to military command and control. Research to date, however, has not determined which cultural factors are most statistically relevant as performance moderators. The predictive role of culture in interaction with other variables such as organizational training, stress or fatigue remains unclear. This lack of sufficient data on culture as a performance moderator stands as a barrier to accurate human behavior representation (Silverman, 2001). Innovative approaches are needed to empirically determine the most relevant and influential cultural factors for a range of human behaviors. Furthermore, moderating variables that shape or bound the influence of culture need to be identified. Innovation is needed to move from theory to statistically supported application. Aptima, Inc., developed the Simulation of Cultural Identities for Prediction of Reactions (SCIPR) model to allow planners to predict how attitudes may change in response to certain events. SCIPR is an agent-based computer simulation that forecasts the effects of actions on peoples' opinions and cultural identities. SCIPR utilizes a number of principles that are well substantiated by research, including the principle that communications takes place more often among people who are alike and physically close. Addressing the root causes of state failure and instability requires the cooperation of local populations and governments. To win this cooperation, military decision makers need to predict changes in the opinions of local populations. Cultural identity is a critical factor in this process; however, cultural identities are multi-layered and dynamic. Each individual has multiple identities and these identities change over time. Attitudes also change based upon people's contact with other individuals. When attitudes change, people's participation in groups changes as well. Understanding and predicting these complex dynamics are extremely difficult, yet critical to success. Aptima has received a Phase II Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) Enhancement for additional development of SCIPR and its application to operational domains.