AFRL and AFIT Develop Tanker Fleet Replacement Model Published Dec. 12, 2006 By Plans and Programs Directorate AFRL/XP WRIGHT-PATTERSON AIR FORCE BASE, Ohio -- With 90% of Air Force (AF) tankers approaching 50 years of service, the replacement or recapitalization of the fleet is an AF priority. Accordingly, AFRL and the Air Force Institute of Technology (AFIT) developed an objective model to provide insight into the costs and benefits of various existing and potential fleet replacement proposals. Age and costs are not the only impediments the AF tanker fleet faces. For instance, just as bomber and fighter aircraft are limited by fuel-related constraints, tanker capabilities are restricted by airfield requirements and the number of en route basing options. Due to their size, tankers require established overseas airfields with robust logistical support. Tanker aircraft equipped with advanced technologies offer the additional capacity to perform both reconnaissance and communication operations. Furthermore, large aircraft tankers lend themselves to supporting airlift operations by providing additional space for cargo. The possibilities of a future AF tanker fleet to improve upon current limitations--and the necessity for fleet aircraft to perform as valuable multipurpose assets--drive the ultimate decisions regarding which aircraft should be incorporated into the future tanker fleet. Using a value-focused thinking (VFT) methodology, the AFRL/AFIT team developed a comprehensive model encompassing the myriad objectives to consider for tanker fleet replacement alternatives. Using VFT in this context allows decision makers to evaluate value trade-offs between the various objectives independently of the alternatives offered. The value model also permits the comparison of objectives measured via otherwise incompatible units, such as "dollars" versus "effectiveness." Further, it accommodates the inclusion of value functions to show increasing or decreasing rates of return for a given objective. Insights acquired from the tanker fleet model convey the importance of procuring a relatively large fleet with a low-per-aircraft-cost. The larger fleet size best satisfies the needs for substantial total fuel capacity and boom availability. Advanced boom technologies are a highly valuable consideration in new tanker designs. However, trade-offs pertaining to the fleet's several cost-related considerations indicate the need to utilize existing, low-cost airframes. The AF can select from a wide variety of approaches for replacing its tanker fleet, including approaches involving the incorporation of unmanned air vehicle dedicated tankers, commercial derivatives, and designs capable of deployment in both larger and smaller theaters.